Both developments would account for less than 100 percent of gas available
Matthew BieniekCumberland Times-News
CUMBERLAND — The latest sketch of two possible Marcellus shale gas developments in Maryland offers two scenarios for drilling in Allegany and Garrett counties. Neither scenario issued by a governor’s commission would develop anywhere close to 100 percent of the shale gas believed to be available in the state.
Both scenarios are a far cry from the idea of 1,000 plus wells that at least one industry representative outlined early on in the discussion of shale gas drilling in Western Maryland.
At the time an executive order by Gov. Martin O’Malley was issued in 2011, “an industry representative has estimated that as many as 1,600 wells could be drilled in 128,000 acres in Garrett County and another 637 wells in 51,000 drillable acres in Allegany County,” according to the state’s Marcellus Shale Safe Drilling Advisory Commission website.
That industry estimate was described by one member of the commission as a “guesstimate” drawn up “on the back of an envelope.” That initial estimate had serious shortcomings at the very least, Brigid E. Kenney, a senior policy adviser to the commission, has said.
Now, the number of wells is more likely going to top out at between 150 and 450, according to the scenarios issued last week.
Of the two scenarios recently released, one accounts for development of 25 percent of the gas available, the other contemplates drilling for 75 percent of the gas believed to be available. A third scenario contemplates no drilling.
Maryland has less than two percent of the available reserves of natural gas in Marcellus shale throughout the nation. One commissioner suggested at the Sept. 25 meeting that a 100 percent drilling scenario also be offered. The scenarios issued are not state policy.
Drilling would begin in 2017 in both scenarios, with eight wells being drilled under the 25 percent scenario and 36 wells drilled under the 75 percent scenario, officials said. The number of wells would grow incrementally each year, with the maximum number of wells drilled in the years 2019-21. Of course, both scenarios assume the state will allow drilling to occur, which is by no means certain, since permanent drilling moratorium bills were introduced in the 2013 General Assembly session. While the bills did not pass, both received significant support within the legislature.
By 2026, the total number of wells would reach a maximum of 450 if 75 percent of shale gas resources were developed, according to the scenarios.
The scenarios were released last week by the commission. The commission is expected to complete its work on the study of potential gas drilling benefits, risks and best practices in late summer of 2014. No drilling permits are currently being issued in Maryland, and a few that were issued were eventually withdrawn.
For more information, visit:http://www.mde.state.md.us/programs/Land/mining/marcellus/Pages/index.aspx.
Matthew Bieniek can be contacted at mbieniek@times-news.com.
